We need a new stat

Let's call it the Interest Now, Determined After Sustained Sucking (InDAss). I hosted a Cubs fan for dinner last night after not talking to him for a few months and I had to ask if he cared or if he had given up on the season. After admitting there were a few reasons to check the standings on maybe a weekly basis on the off chance there was a miracle brewing in Wrigleyville, he said its Bears season. Mets fans, including some of your faithful OSMers, have long since given up hope. We have a magic number, but maybe it's time for a tragic number.

Here's a suggested formula for the InDAss. It's a work in progress, so please don't submit this to the STATS folks until we agree on all of the variables, thank you very much. This applies to all sports, I believe, except for hockey where no team is eliminated ever. You either get a participation ribbon or the Stanley Cup at the end of the season and only Canadians care which.

Games remaining
- Games back/division (once InDAss turns into a negative number, this becomes games back in the wild card, if the sport has one)
* Wimp index (fan's tolerance for backing a team that's going through a tough swing, along the lines of a batting average)
+ Schedule effect (who do you have on your schedule? Scale of -5 to 5)
+ Precedent factor (Scale of 0 - 10 representing size of most recent turn around)
- Strength of Competition (0 - 10 scale, based on current performance and historical stretch performance of the leader)
- Delusion penalty (Sorry, Rockies fans. That's never happening again. Scale = 0 - 5)
= InDAss

So for starters, the Cubs. The Cubs as of last night's action stood at 6 games back. To the outside observer it doesn't look that bad, especially with some puff balls coming up in the schedule. Let's have a look and see if my buddy should find a paper bag and calm down.

Games remaining - 45
- Games back (6) - 31
* wimp index (Cubs fans endure a ton, but have a time earned sense of futility. -- .230) - 7.13
+ Schedule effect (as they are in danger of being swept by the Padres, who the Cubs should beat is up for debate, but objectively, they have one more vs. SD, 4 in LA vs. the slumping Dodgers, the Mets and Nats at home -- and that's just the rest of the month. September has the Bucs and more Mets to balance out sets vs. potential wild card rivals San Fran and the division leader Cardinals. Let's call it a 3.) - 10.13
+ Precedent factor (remember that great comeback story the Cubs had in the last decade? Me either -- 0) - 10.13
- Strength of Competition (The Cardinals looked like a wild card threat to start the season, but until -- I mean if, if, Cards fans -- Carpenter does back on the DL, that team is capital T tough and looking strong for the balance of the year -- 9) - 1.13
- Delusion penalty (Cubs fans know where they stand -- 0) - 1.13

= The Cubs are in danger of crossing over into Wild Card chasers, but I don't think all hope is lost in the division. A good next 15 games is important, but keep your chins up, Cub fans, at least through the weekend.

Caps Drop Game 1 to Rangers

If all you saw was the first period of last nights game you might think the Caps would have won. The Caps had a frenzied attack mixed with some hard hitting. However, after 60 minutes the Rangers walked away up 1-0 in the best of seven series with a 4-3 victory over the Washington Capitals. There are so many elements one can point to as a reason for winning or losing. Most of them were thrown out the window last night. In the end it came down to goal tending and Lundquist prevailed.

Coming into last night's action we were looking at a match up of a great offense with average goal tending vs a solid defensive team with great goal tending. Along this line, one of the keys to watch was New York's top ranked penalty kill vs Washington's power play which was 2nd in the league during the regular season. The Caps scored twice in seven opportunities on the man advantage. It wasn't enough however.

Puck possession is a big part of Washington's offense. They generate so many opportunities because of this. And it all begins with the face off. Closing out the season C David Steckel won over 75% of his face offs. With help from C Nicholas Backstrom, who won 13 of 18, and C Sergei Federov the Rangers were outplayed. These wins led to 35 shots on the NY net minder.

Henrik Lundquist was on top of his game ending with a .914 save %. He made some spectacular saves all night and came up big when he needed to. At the other end there were a lot of questions surrounding Jose Theodore on whether or not he would turn it on in the post season after a mediocre regular season. The answer was a resounding no.

Jose Theodore surrendered 4 goals on 21 shots for an .810 save %. 69 seconds after Tomas Fleischman put the Caps up 1-0 in the second period Theo gave up a soft goal to Scott Gomez. There were some questionable non calls by the refs on this play but regardless it was not a particularly challenging shot that Theo could not handle. It was a shot that was as soft as humanly possible and it managed to dribble through. It was a goal he should not have given up in the post season and one Cap fans saw too much of in the regular season. When the Caps needed a big save Theodore was not there. The best save was made by the goal post. Because goalies receive most of the blame in a loss this is not to say that all the blame falls on Theodore.

Two of the three goals scored by the Rangers in the second period came on the power play. Because timing is crucial when playing goal it is certainly possible that because of the play of the Caps, Theo never got into a rhythm. He faced 21 shots and only 6 in the third. There were defensive gaffs that also cost them. In particular the game winner that was scored by Dubinsky. D Jeff Schultz over pursued Dubinsky and lost his footing. This left the Ranger 1-on-1 with Theodore. He then proceeded to rip a shot top shelf over the catching glove. Lundquist then shut the Caps down to end the game.

Boudreau will most likely stick Theo in net for game two. During the regular season he tended to go with the hot hand but I don't think he is anxious to plug in the rookie Varlamov. Last year Huet was lit up by Phily and I was certainly expecting to see Kolzig the following game but Boudreau went back to Huet who was fantastic. This situation is a little different because there is a lot of pressure for the Caps to go deep into the playoffs. Last year they were just happy to be there. If Theodore struggles look for Varlamov in game 3 if Brent Johnson is not back from injury which is not likely.

Other Notes: After 14 seasons Viktor Kozlov scored his first career playoff goal. Here is the link for Capitals Insider. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalsinsider/